Coffee has been traded in the world for 400 years, and the harsh reality is that during each of these years, without exception, coffee growers have remained poor and exporters rich. This is, of course, a basic, simple and shallow analysis, but it only has one thing in its favor, and that is that it stands the test of time.
How these chaotic times affect roasters? Coffee has been traded in the world for 400 years, and the harsh reality is that during each of these years, without exception, coffee growers have remained poor and exporters rich. This is, of course, a basic, simple and shallow analysis, but it only has one thing in its favor, and that is that it stands the test of time. The test of time must be framed in a period long enough to understand a long-range phenomena, with the slow movement and measurement of its parameters. As it is in this case, about money, coffee and 400 years, a basic but fundamental tool to identify the errors of a system and to be able to establish its potential solutions. This is why the impact of specialty coffee on the coffee industry CANNOT be assessed on the basis of a very specific set of situations that generated an exponential rise in coffee prices to a 50-year high on the New York Stock Exchange.
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The situation in the Red Sea has become more complex in recent months. To protect their crews, ships and cargo, shipping companies are changing their routes to avoid the Red Sea and go around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of the African continent. However, the risk zone in the Red Sea has expanded and attacks are occurring in areas further from the coast. As a result, ships have to take longer routes, which increases the time and cost of bringing the coffee to Barcelona. Due to the above, the transit time of our shipment from Kenya was extended to 60 days, which is double the usual transit time. Furthermore, upon reaching the Mediterranean, ships are being diverted to ports in Morocco and Spain, which causes serious overcrowding and congestion in container unloading. All major shipping companies are using these ports for transhipments, putting immense pressure on port capacities in the Mediterranean region and pushing them to the limit.
Before privatizing the coffee industry in Burundi in 2008, all coffee production was under the control of the state-owned company Sogestal, which is now virtually bankrupt. As a result of this privatization, the situation of small coffee producers has deteriorated. The government, under pressure from the World Bank, transferred most of the washing stations it used to control to foreign or multinational companies, leaving small coffee producers with very little to support themselves. Coffee is very important to Burundi, accounting for 80% of the country's export earnings and supporting the livelihoods of 55% of the population, approximately 750,000 families, the majority of whom are smallholder farmers. In 2007, the president of Burundi at the time declared that coffee belonged to the producers until it was exported. This agreement allowed them to oversee the supply chain and gave them the right to receive 72% of the revenue from international coffee sales. But in reality, little or none of that has happened.
We have lost count of the number of cupping sessions involved in the coffee selection process in Kenya. This process lasts several months and includes a series of quality control measures. In simple terms, the coffees we select undergo five main selection procedures before reaching your roastery. Journey to Origin: This process begins with a visit to cooperatives and a meeting with coffee producers and exporters at origin. Two trips are made; one during the harvest, where no cupping takes place, and another approximately a month when the harvest ends. During this last trip, we cupped around 500 samples per week, which is a pretty intense process. Here the pre-selection is carried out.
We are in the presence of a revolution, a revolution of farmers! In case you hadn't noticed, revolutions are no longer about warfare. Today revolutions are spiritual, technological or ideological. Furthermore, the leaders no longer die for their cause, but instead, seek refuge in a neighbouring country until the danger passes or they simply change their beliefs. This is precisely what has happened in Kenya, a revolution. The coffee farmer's revolution! Although, according to our records collected over the years, we had established that Kenya was the African country where the best price per kg of cherry was paid (about 1 USD per kg). But the coffee farmers were not happy with that, and who is? We all want more, it's part of our human nature. The problem here was not greed, but rather that many of them did not generate enough income to cover their production costs. This resulted in many of them giving up coffee, in favour of more profitable crops such as avocado or macadamia.
As of today, we are informed that some milling facilities are operational but are experiencing significant delays. We plan to complete the selection process by the end of February and start milling in March. Our target is to have the coffee in Barcelona by April. However, there may be unforeseen delays, so we suggest you stay informed and caffeinated. Kenyan coffee has always been highly valued by roasters and importers, and international prices serve as a benchmark for the local price on the Nairobi Coffee Exchange. However, the coffee sector is currently struggling and in need of renewal, as more and more farmers abandon coffee farming in favour of better-paying enterprises such as real estate and avocado cultivation. The government is working to halt the decline, as there are concerns that the once-thriving coffee sub-sector has lost its lustre.
As we enter 2024, we find our purchase planning clouded by uncertainty and doubt. As you may know, the new EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requires companies trading coffee and other commodities such as livestock, cocoa, oil palm, rubber, soy and timber, as well as products derived from these, to carry out extensive due diligence in the value chain to ensure that the goods are not the result of recent deforestation, forest degradation or violations of local environmental laws. European importing companies will need to prepare for the new obligations that will apply from 30 December 2024. From the importer's perspective, the EUDR will require companies to digitally map their supply chains back to the farms where the coffee was grown, which could involve tracking thousands of small farms in remote regions. This is obviously impossible to do, because importers do not directly visit all the smallholders we work with and rely in part on data provided by local exporters, some of whom also do not deal directly with coffee farmers.
As the new harvest begins in Kenya, it is always important to dive into the complex relationship between coffee, politics, climate change, industry trends and international trade. The harvest has started this November at a very slow pace, and shows great potential for western coffees, i.e., the Bungoma region and its surroundings. In addition, the big news is a new government proposing deep structural changes to the industry at different levels, large millers and traders, the Nairobi Coffee Exchange and the cooperatives. In Kenya, there are three major coffee trading companies: Sucafina, Ecom and NKG. These companies also own factories and marketing agencies that were formed in accordance with government regulations, which required that a company could only engage in marketing, milling or exporting if it had companies dedicated solely to that particular service. With the current reforms, these companies lost their licences and were required to apply for a licence for a single service, e.g., marketing only.
It's a question we get a lot, especially when we have popular coffees such as Ethiopia or Kenya coming in. Although the logistical process is not difficult per se, it involves so many steps that this, make it complicated. Therefore, it requires proper planning and coordination. At each of these steps there is a risk for quality of the coffee to be affected if anything goes slightly wrong. As we know, the quality of coffee is determined by the quality of the harvest, i.e., how ripe the cherry is when it is removed from the coffee tree. This is the maximum point of quality in the production chain, after that, everything is deterioration, or at best, maintenance. The task of getting your coffee from the plant to your roastery is what we call coffee logistics. It is a process that consists of three main stages: production, preparation and export/distribution. Each of these stages contains a series of sub-stages or tasks that are carried out by a large number of people and/or machinery. It is also important to note that a number of customs, legal and sanitary rules and regulations must be complied with. Furthermore, in our role as importers or buyers of green coffee, we must ensure that the highest quality standards are met at each of these stages.
We are not going to tell you that everything is hunky-dory in Ethiopia, that everything is perfect, that the coffee farmers are happy, or that the future is bright, because that is certainly not true. While there have been improvements in the humanitarian situation caused by the war, the economic and climatic situation is only getting worse. Temperatures are rising and rainfall is falling in a pattern that could lead to a 25% drop in production by 2030, and inflation is hitting hard, reaching 34% per annum last December. For a coffee importer, (I think we all share the same opinion) Ethiopia is the most challenging origin, but at the same time the most rewarding in terms of travel experience and coffee quality. Quality is part of the establishment, from a genetic and terroir perspective Ethiopia is always expected to have unique, complex and intense cup profiles, but there are problems related to human intervention that do not allow these high expectations to be realised.
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