Education | Kilimanjaro Specialty Coffees

Could Trump's Tariffs Lower Green Coffee Prices?

7/17/2025

President Trump's recent imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, along with threats of similar measures against other BRICS countries, has sent shockwaves through the global coffee industry. This move poses a significant challenge, as the United States is the largest importer of Brazilian coffee, with trade valued at approximately $1.9 billion last year. The sudden disruption in this supply chain could lead to an oversupply of Brazilian coffee searching for new markets, potentially lowering both its price and the global commodity price.

With U.S. buyers stepping back, Brazilian exporters will likely turn to alternative destinations—Europe being the most logical next market. This shift could result in greater availability of Brazilian beans at more competitive prices. While this situation presents challenges for some producers, it could translate into significant cost savings for European roasters and buyers. Downward pressure on prices may help offset recent inflationary trends in green coffee supply, enabling roasters to stabilise or even reduce their costs.

How is coffee market volatility affecting prices in Ethiopia?

2/28/2025

The global coffee market is currently experiencing unprecedented volatility, with New York Arabica coffee prices reaching all-time highs. On February 10, 2025, Arabica futures rose to $4.30 per pound, marking the 13th consecutive session of record prices. However, just yesterday, prices fell to $3.86 per pound, breaking the $4 barrier in a single day. This volatility is primarily attributed to adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer, where dry and hot weather has significantly impacted coffee-growing regions. As a result, Brazilian farmers are hesitant to sell their limited supplies, further exacerbating the global shortage.

In response to these global market dynamics, the Ethiopian government has implemented a minimum coffee price directive aimed at protecting local producers and ensuring that as many dollars as possible flow into the economy. This policy requires Ethiopian coffee exporters to sell at or above a predetermined minimum price, which is adjusted weekly based on international market trends and the prevailing exchange rate.

Record future prices V/S average cherry prices

2/5/2025

The recent surge in Arabica coffee futures on the New York Stock Exchange, which yesterday reached an all-time high of $3.75 per pound, has complex implications for African coffee producers. While economies such as Ethiopia, Kenya or Rwanda will benefit from higher prices, small farmers, who account for 90% of African coffee producers, often struggle to capitalise on these gains. Factors such as rampant inflation, high input costs and reliance on middlemen reduce their potential profits.

In Ethiopia, 6 kg of cherries are needed to produce 1 kg of green coffee, the price per kilogram of cherries is still low compared to the price achieved by coffee futures on international markets. During the 2024-25 harvest that just ended, the average price per kg of cherry on the local market has fluctuated between 80 to 90 birr per kilogram (approximately $0.5 to $0.55 USD), which represents a fraction of the value that coffee futures fetch on the global market. This is partly due to the intermediation structure in the Ethiopian market, where farmers often rely on local cooperatives and traders who buy the cherry at lower prices before it reaches the international market.

What is the minimum export price for Ethiopian coffee?

12/12/2024

Ethiopia consumes about half of the coffee it produces on the domestic market, usually lower-quality lots, as high-quality coffee is usually reserved for international sales. The government prohibits the sale of export-quality coffee on the local market, even when local prices are more favourable. However, there is a domestic demand for high-quality coffee, which can be illegally supplied with higher-quality coffee when local prices exceed those offered by exports.

In February 2020, the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority established a minimum export price for coffee, as well as a semi-official minimum price for coffee at local sales centres. The minimum export price is calculated daily, based on the global weighted average of the price given to different grades of coffee from different regions. At the time, the measure increased the price of green coffee by a range of approximately 0.5 to 1 USD/lb for grade 1 (best quality) coffee. And exporters selling coffee below the minimum price were made subject to legal action by the Ministry of Trade.

Coffee prices, EUDR, Trump and other calamities.

11/28/2024

How these chaotic times affect roasters?

Coffee has been traded in the world for 400 years, and the harsh reality is that during each of these years, without exception, coffee growers have remained poor and exporters rich. This is, of course, a basic, simple and shallow analysis, but it only has one thing in its favor, and that is that it stands the test of time.

The test of time must be framed in a period long enough to understand a long-range phenomena, with the slow movement and measurement of its parameters. As it is in this case, about money, coffee and 400 years, a basic but fundamental tool to identify the errors of a system and to be able to establish its potential solutions. This is why the impact of specialty coffee on the coffee industry CANNOT be assessed on the basis of a very specific set of situations that generated an exponential rise in coffee prices to a 50-year high on the New York Stock Exchange.

BURUNDI: INTERVIEW WITH A COFFEE FARMER

8/10/2023

Burundi is an ideal country for the production of high-quality Arabica coffee, which could generate a solid and recurring income for thousands of farming families. An average altitude of between 1,500 and 2,000 metres, abundant rainfall and a tropical savannah biome combine to create exceptional growing conditions, with coffee accounting for 80 per cent of the country's exports.

Despite this, the Burundian coffee sector faces many challenges. Poor soil health and inadequate maintenance of coffee trees result in low and irregular yields. Production is also threatened by climate change, which increases the frequency of both droughts and heavy rains, resulting in increased soil erosion. Meanwhile, poor processing practices reduce the quality and price of much of Burundi's coffee, and the country's cumbersome business and political environment makes it less attractive to global exporters.

WHAT'S GOING ON IN ETHIOPIA?

1/26/2023

We are not going to tell you that everything is hunky-dory in Ethiopia, that everything is perfect, that the coffee farmers are happy, or that the future is bright, because that is certainly not true. While there have been improvements in the humanitarian situation caused by the war, the economic and climatic situation is only getting worse. Temperatures are rising and rainfall is falling in a pattern that could lead to a 25% drop in production by 2030, and inflation is hitting hard, reaching 34% per annum last December.

For a coffee importer, (I think we all share the same opinion) Ethiopia is the most challenging origin, but at the same time the most rewarding in terms of travel experience and coffee quality. Quality is part of the establishment, from a genetic and terroir perspective Ethiopia is always expected to have unique, complex and intense cup profiles, but there are problems related to human intervention that do not allow these high expectations to be realised.

AN INDUSTRY WITHOUT SMALL COFFEE FARMERS

7/14/2022

Our industry often forgets how important small farmers are to the work we all do every day. We can verify this every time we meet at events like the last World of Coffee in Milan, where the focus is mostly on competitions, machinery, influencers, but apparently no one realizes that without small coffee growers none of this would be possible, and they keep being ignored as they have been for 400 years.

The current times are stormy, for no one in the world it should be a mystery that climate change is affecting our lives in a radical way. To no one either, it should be a mystery that inflation is hitting the pockets of the world's poorest people, and this particularly impacts coffee farmers who, despite record coffee prices, have not seen their income levels improve. Finally, due to the war in Ukraine, the shortage of fertilizers could cause a deficit of almost 20% in coffee production in 2022, in addition to the food crisis that it is already affecting various parts of Africa.

ETHIOPIA: Origin update 2022

6/17/2022

Coffee is a biennial cycle crop, which means that coffee trees have high productivity in one harvest and low production in the next, due to the plant's need for recomposition. This phenomenon has a greater influence on coffee of the Arabica species, and a greater economic impact on those origins that have only one harvest a year, as is the case in Ethiopia.

During the 2022 harvest in Ethiopia, production was affected by a negative biennial cycle, where flowering decreased due to the need of the plant to recompose itself after a very productive period last harvest 2021.

KENYA 2022: IS 1 USD PER 1 Kg OF CHERRY POSSIBLE?

5/26/2022

Things are changing for the better in Kenya, the average price of coffee cherries has increased from USD 0.45 per kg of cherry in 2016/2017 to USD 0.80 per kg of cherry in the year 2020/2021, a 78% grow! But what has happened in the year 2021/2022?

According to information from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCI), coffee production increased by 64% in the 2021/2022 harvest, compared to the previous year, and income increased by 90% in the same period. This is the result of a lower supply to the global market, because in Brazil, the harsh weather conditions caused up to 20% of the entire harvest to be lost in the last season. And in Ethiopia, the world's fifth largest producer, agricultural activities have been interrupted by the conflict between the government and the militia in the Tigray region.