Education | Kilimanjaro Specialty Coffees

How is coffee market volatility affecting prices in Ethiopia?

2/28/2025

The global coffee market is currently experiencing unprecedented volatility, with New York Arabica coffee prices reaching all-time highs. On February 10, 2025, Arabica futures rose to $4.30 per pound, marking the 13th consecutive session of record prices. However, just yesterday, prices fell to $3.86 per pound, breaking the $4 barrier in a single day. This volatility is primarily attributed to adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer, where dry and hot weather has significantly impacted coffee-growing regions. As a result, Brazilian farmers are hesitant to sell their limited supplies, further exacerbating the global shortage.

In response to these global market dynamics, the Ethiopian government has implemented a minimum coffee price directive aimed at protecting local producers and ensuring that as many dollars as possible flow into the economy. This policy requires Ethiopian coffee exporters to sell at or above a predetermined minimum price, which is adjusted weekly based on international market trends and the prevailing exchange rate.

Record future prices V/S average cherry prices

2/5/2025

The recent surge in Arabica coffee futures on the New York Stock Exchange, which yesterday reached an all-time high of $3.75 per pound, has complex implications for African coffee producers. While economies such as Ethiopia, Kenya or Rwanda will benefit from higher prices, small farmers, who account for 90% of African coffee producers, often struggle to capitalise on these gains. Factors such as rampant inflation, high input costs and reliance on middlemen reduce their potential profits.

In Ethiopia, 6 kg of cherries are needed to produce 1 kg of green coffee, the price per kilogram of cherries is still low compared to the price achieved by coffee futures on international markets. During the 2024-25 harvest that just ended, the average price per kg of cherry on the local market has fluctuated between 80 to 90 birr per kilogram (approximately $0.5 to $0.55 USD), which represents a fraction of the value that coffee futures fetch on the global market. This is partly due to the intermediation structure in the Ethiopian market, where farmers often rely on local cooperatives and traders who buy the cherry at lower prices before it reaches the international market.

Burundi: Corruption at the top, hits hard at the low.

6/5/2024

Before privatizing the coffee industry in Burundi in 2008, all coffee production was under the control of the state-owned company Sogestal, which is now virtually bankrupt. As a result of this privatization, the situation of small coffee producers has deteriorated. The government, under pressure from the World Bank, transferred most of the washing stations it used to control to foreign or multinational companies, leaving small coffee producers with very little to support themselves.

Coffee is very important to Burundi, accounting for 80% of the country's export earnings and supporting the livelihoods of 55% of the population, approximately 750,000 families, the majority of whom are smallholder farmers. In 2007, the president of Burundi at the time declared that coffee belonged to the producers until it was exported. This agreement allowed them to oversee the supply chain and gave them the right to receive 72% of the revenue from international coffee sales. But in reality, little or none of that has happened.

2024: The impact of new EU regulations at origin.

1/11/2024

As we enter 2024, we find our purchase planning clouded by uncertainty and doubt. As you may know, the new EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requires companies trading coffee and other commodities such as livestock, cocoa, oil palm, rubber, soy and timber, as well as products derived from these, to carry out extensive due diligence in the value chain to ensure that the goods are not the result of recent deforestation, forest degradation or violations of local environmental laws. European importing companies will need to prepare for the new obligations that will apply from 30 December 2024.

From the importer's perspective, the EUDR will require companies to digitally map their supply chains back to the farms where the coffee was grown, which could involve tracking thousands of small farms in remote regions. This is obviously impossible to do, because importers do not directly visit all the smallholders we work with and rely in part on data provided by local exporters, some of whom also do not deal directly with coffee farmers.

WHAT IS BEHIND THE ARRIVAL OF MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS IN SPECIALTY COFFEE?

10/19/2022

Coffee has been traded for commercial purposes for 400 years. From there, it has spread to approximately 70 countries where it is currently grown. The Dutch were the ones who began to establish economies of scale around the production and export of coffee. Later they grew coffee in Java and Ceylon (now Sri Lanka). The first exports from Java to the Netherlands occurred in 1711, and the Dutch East India Company was the first multinational corporation in history and the first to export coffee on a large scale.

During these four centuries, a pattern of neo-feudal behaviour has been generated, which has forced small coffee growers to chain themselves into ultra-dependent relationships with large landowners or multinationals, which have caused multimillion-dollar profits for large companies, in addition to the concentration of land, marginalization and slavery. This is how this business model has been perpetuated until today.

What does it mean a "C" coffee price above 200 cts/lb?

7/28/2021

Coffee has reached record prices since 2014 this week. But how does this price increase affect coffee farmers and roasters?

What is the "C" price of coffee?

The coffee commodities market, also known as the "C" Market, is where brokers at the New York Stock Exchange determine the future price of coffee contracts globally every day. By buying or selling these futures contracts, brokers place bets on the expected future value of a certain commodity. Therefore, projections about the future supply and demand of coffee will make possible multiple variations in its price in the present.

ELECTION DAY IN ETHIOPIA: Why is it important?

6/24/2021

Cupping coffees without having any origin info, would be nonsense, right? We can't understand a coffee if we do not know its origin and to really know an origin, we must first try to understand its culture, read its history, listen to its music and observe the state of its political system. There's no other way.

It is the same with many other situations in life, everything is a consequence of something anterior, a reaction of a previous action. This "Newtonian" plot is everywhere, and no matter how hard we try to untangle it, hits our unsophisticated sense of perception like an apple falling on one’s head, preventing us from understanding its full scope and impact.

COFFEE PRICE IN CRISIS: when a problem macro, has a micro solution.

2/14/2019

“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity" - Albert Einstein

In August of the year 2018, the price of coffee reached levels considered alarming by the majority of those who work in the coffee industry. For the first time in 12 years, the "C" price in New York fell below 100cts/lb. While it is true, the average price of the last 12 years is not much higher than 120cts/lb, this decline generated unprecedented reactions in the specialty coffee world, which we think is positive.

RESPONSIBLE LOGISTICS AND CONSCIOUS TRAVEL

5/23/2018

Since time immemorial, people have always travelled and the world has always traded their products. But it is also true that global temperature never rose so fast as in the last 35 years.

If climate change will be held in a temperature increase of 2ºC or less (Aim of the Paris Agreement 2015); By 2050 it is estimated that 40% of all Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions will be caused by ships and airplanes only, if not properly regulated.

The history of coffee in Indonesia

9/13/2017

Indonesia was the third country in the world to grow coffee for commercial purposes after Ethiopia and Yemen.

The history of coffee in Indonesia, as in many others producing countries around the world, begins with tales of colonialism, slavery, monopoly and multinational corporations (Yes! The first ones of modern history were set in the early 17th century).