ETHIOPIA: Origin update 2022

Coffee is a biennial cycle crop, which means that coffee trees have high productivity in one harvest and low production in the next, due to the plant's need for recomposition. This phenomenon has a greater influence on coffee of the Arabica species, and a greater economic impact on those origins that have only one harvest a year, as is the case in Ethiopia.

​During the 2022 harvest in Ethiopia, production was affected by a negative biennial cycle, where flowering decreased due to the need of the plant to recompose itself after a very productive period last harvest 2021.

​The last two years have been very difficult for all the countries of the world without exception, but in Ethiopia the challenges have multiplied exponentially. With a civil war, annualized inflation above 30% as of March 2022, low coffee production, a record drought, and major challenges in the export logistics chain.
 
All of the above has led to some Ethiopian exporters not being able to fulfill the contracts agreed with international buyers when prices were much lower. This is because prices per kg of cherries have reached as high as ETB 90 (USD 1.5) in areas like Guji and local exporters have been caught between the low prices of the contracts signed last year and the explosive increase in cherry prices and inputs in 2022.
 
Supply and price are always inversely related: the lower the supply, the higher the price. But the relationship between production and quality is direct. During a negative biennial cycle mixed with drought, this combination creates a vicious loop that especially affects importers looking only for specialty coffee.